“The 2010 Meltdown”
Now there’s a catchy title, especially today, as we worry about a 2008 recession meltdown. However, this is a book by Edward E. Gordon, president of Imperial Consulting Corporation in Chicago. And, while our current concerns are economy related, and we consider them cyclical, Gordon writes about a more terrifying meltdown. His is systemic, and enduring. Gordon’s meltdown results from the demographic realities of an aging population, a massive lack of competence in the U.S. educational system, and a failure of government to deal with this scary scenario in any productive manner.
One of Gordon’s fundamental premises relates to the coming retirement of the 78 million Boomers. Peter Capelli of Wharton has called this ‘Gray2k.’ He believes that there will not be a crisis, but does so because he believes that Boomers will be paid/motivated to stay in/return to the workforce. Let’s hope so, because as Gordon points out, the 55+ workforce will have to have a rate of employment 25% greater than it is today “to maintain productivity.”
Gordon then points out that while this massive wave of retirement has started to arrive, the situation is compounded by a pathetic record for U.S. education and training. For a country that used to lead the world in education, it is sad to see the statistics that “… U.S. students ranked 15th out of 29 OECD countries in reading, and 24th out of 29 nations in mathematics.” He notes that only 2o% of the workers are qualified for 60% of the jobs (statistics from The Hudson Institute). This poor education/lack of training is likely to leave a majority of the U.S. workforce becoming “techno-peasants,” a great phrase by Gordon that paints a sad picture for the future of our youth.
Is the scenario all pessimistic? Not necessarily. Gordon points out several municipalities that have developed industry/government/education initiatives. An outstanding example is Fargo, ND. The Skills and Technology Training Center developed by the community has brought many companies into Fargo. Unemployment is 2%. Fargo has Microsofts’ 2nd biggest campus. Community cooperative efforts are needed and can work. Gordon details how federal efforts, on the other hand, produce little or nothing.
Relating to my earlier post on a potential ‘Global Competitive Advantage’ for the U.S., there is a section detailing a drastic problem with aging populations in Europe, Japan, and, yes, China (for those who have a hard time believing this, refer to a McKinsey Quarterly article just published on this subject [link]).
Finally, Gordon wraps up with an appeal dear to this blog, to keep older workers on the job.
The book is ‘The 2010 Meltdown: Solving the Impending Jobs Crisis,’ by Edward E. Gordon, published by Praeger.